The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from prior estimates, due to the Middle East conflict. Global inflation would rise to 4.4% from higher energy costs. In adverse scenarios, growth could drop to near 2% with inflation near 6%.
The IMF released its World Economic Outlook, noting increased uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, which disrupts prior recovery.
The fund outlines three main impact channels: an energy supply shock raising costs and inflation, risks of second-round effects like wage hikes, and financial reactions with risk aversion and a stronger dollar.
For monetary policy, the IMF describes a dilemma: tolerate transitory inflation if expectations remain anchored, or tighten if they deteriorate, hinging on central banks' credibility.
Emerging economies face a 0.3 percentage point cut in their 2026 growth forecasts, with greater vulnerability to external shocks, particularly energy importers with prior fiscal weaknesses.
In Colombia, the primary fiscal deficit reached -0.7% of GDP through February, amid high oil prices, financial volatility, and rising risk perception, pressuring interest rates and borrowing costs.
