Following initial driverless trials in Austin, Tesla faces scrutiny over higher crash rates in its robotaxi fleet while analysts forecast significant growth, as the company pushes toward unsupervised public deployment.
Building on the December 14, 2025, confirmation of occupant-free robotaxi testing in Austin—where two Model Y vehicles were spotted navigating public roads without safety monitors—Tesla continues to advance toward fully unsupervised operations.
Safety remains a focal point, with Tesla's robotaxis reporting eight crashes over 250,000 miles since the June 2025 launch, or one incident every 40,000 miles. This lags behind Waymo's rate of one crash every 98,600 miles across 100 million driverless miles. Regulatory filings have drawn criticism for delays and lack of transparency, prompting ongoing National Highway Traffic Safety Administration investigations.
Tesla currently runs about 30 robotaxis in Austin and the California Bay Area, well below earlier projections of 1,000 vehicles. However, analysts at Morgan Stanley anticipate scaling to 1,000 by 2026 and one million by 2035, provided safety improves. Goldman Sachs highlights the need for rapid expansion into nearby cities like Houston and Dallas to achieve profitability.
These developments highlight Tesla's ambitious timeline for driverless ride-hailing, despite past delays and unfulfilled promises from CEO Elon Musk.
