Bitcoin experienced its first negative October performance since 2018, closing the month lower after an early peak above $126,000. The decline was driven by increased selling from long-term holders and reduced buying pressure from U.S. investors. This break from historical patterns highlights vulnerabilities in the market amid profit-taking and macroeconomic strains.
For over a decade, October has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with average gains of about 22.5% fueled by post-summer liquidity and year-end positioning. In 2025, expectations were high, leading to a new all-time high above $126,000 in the first week and the revival of the 'Uptober' meme. However, a rapid sell-off erased these gains, and Bitcoin failed to recover, resulting in a monthly close lower—the first red October in seven years.
This downturn echoes 2018, when October's rally stalled, preceding sharp declines in November (over 36% loss) and December. Analysts attribute the 2025 slump to exhaustion after strong earlier quarters, with uneven liquidity and heavy positioning among traders.
On-chain data from Glassnode reveals long-term holders steadily spent coins since mid-July, raising daily realized selling from $1 billion to $2-3 billion by early October. 'Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure—especially during the late stages of the top formation. Around the $126,000 ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025,' the firm noted. These coins originated from wallets bought between $70,000 and $96,000, averaging nearly $93,000 cost basis, indicating profit-taking rather than panic.
Compounding this, U.S. investor appetite waned, per CryptoQuant. ETF inflows dropped below 1,000 BTC per day from over 2,500 BTC during prior rallies. Analyst Moreno observed that 'the marginal US buyer stepped back right when long-term holders stepped up their selling.' Macro factors, including U.S.-China trade frictions, Middle East tensions, and the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy, further strained liquidity.
Research platform Kronos described the pullback as a 'liquidity strain, not a trend break,' with Bitcoin acting as a flight-to-safety asset. Timothy Misir of BRN called it a 'recalibrating, not collapsing' market, provided Bitcoin holds above $107,000–$110,000. At press time on October 31, 2025, Bitcoin traded at $110,333.99, up 2.44% in 24 hours, with a $2.2 trillion market cap.
Looking ahead, the year-end may hinge on whether long-term selling cools and ETF flows rebound. Unlike 2018, deeper investor bases and regulated products offer more support, potentially averting a deeper slide.