Global rice production is projected to decline for the first time in more than a decade due to this year's strong El Niño combined with ongoing climate change. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts sharp drops in output, particularly in the Mississippi Delta region.
More than half the world's population relies on rice as a staple. Projections indicate yields will fall amid intensified dry and hot conditions from the current El Niño, described by researchers as a "super El Niño" that has already reached very strong levels.
In the United States, production for the upcoming season is expected to drop by more than half, reaching the lowest levels in 40 years. Atul Jain, a professor at the University of Illinois, noted that high temperatures can substantially reduce rice yields and hit farmers hard during extreme climate events.
Experts from Columbia University's Climate School said the phenomenon will continue to intensify in coming months, disrupting weather patterns globally. Jeremy Zwinger, president and CEO of The Rice Trader, warned that drought kills commodities and could create divides between regions with sufficient supplies and those without.
India has benefited from recent investments in irrigation and resilient rice strains, boosting its position as a top producer. However, concerns remain about groundwater depletion and the limits of adaptation measures as temperatures rise.