American grandmaster Hans Niemann has named Fabiano Caruana as the clear favorite to win the FIDE Candidates Tournament in April 2026. He forecasts that if Caruana qualifies, he would hold a 70-30 advantage over defending world champion Gukesh D in the subsequent World Chess Championship match at the end of the year.
In an interview with Chessbase India, Hans Niemann expressed strong confidence in Fabiano Caruana's prospects for the upcoming FIDE Candidates Tournament, set to begin in two months. "I think the favourite (to win the Candidates tournament) should definitely be Fabi (Caruana). I mean, he’s the best player, and by far—at least in terms of consistency—I think he’s clearly the best," Niemann stated.
The tournament will feature eight players, with Caruana among the most experienced alongside fellow American Hikaru Nakamura and Anish Giri. Both Caruana and Nakamura have maintained top-three positions in FIDE rankings for much of the past decade. India's R Praggnanandhaa returns after participating in the previous Candidates in Toronto, while newcomers Javokhir Sindarov, Andrey Esipenko, Matthias Bluebaum, and Wei Yi make their debuts.
Niemann ranked the contenders after Caruana, highlighting Sindarov's recent strong performances and placing Praggnanandhaa third. "If you ask me to choose between the rest, I would say Sindarov because of his good recent results. If I had to pick a third, it would probably be Praggnanandhaa. Those are the three favorites," he said. He dismissed strong chances for Bluebaum and Esipenko and noted Nakamura's limited activity in classical chess: "Hikaru is inactive from classical chess. He doesn’t actually play classical games often, so I wouldn’t consider him that likely."
Looking ahead to the World Chess Championship, Niemann predicted a matchup between Caruana and Gukesh D would favor the American. "I would say it’s probably 75-25 in favor of Fabi. Maybe 70-30," he remarked.
The Candidates will consist of 14 rounds, testing the players' consistency in a high-stakes field.