Japan's agriculture ministry has forecast staple rice production at 7.11 million tons for 2026, down 370,000 tons from 2025. The estimate accounts for factors including a rise in foreign visitors. New Agriculture Minister Norikazu Suzuki has pledged a shift to demand-based production.
The agriculture ministry submitted the forecast of 7.11 million tons for 2026 staple rice production on Friday to a meeting of a subgroup under its panel on agriculture policies. This represents a drop of 370,000 tons from the 2025 estimate and serves as a reference for farmers' rice planting decisions. The projection incorporates factors such as an increase in foreign visitors to the country.
Agriculture Minister Norikazu Suzuki, who took office under the new administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi launched on October 21, has vowed to reverse the previous government's policy of boosting rice production. He has stressed the importance of "demand-based production" to avoid rice price declines caused by excess supply over demand.
The ministry also announced plans to resume purchases of rice for government stockpiles next year, which were suspended due to rice shortages since summer 2024. Separately on Friday, the ministry reported that the average price of rice at about 1,000 supermarkets across Japan for the week through Sunday was ¥4,208 per 5 kilograms, down ¥43 from the previous week. This marked the first decline in two weeks, though prices have remained above ¥4,000 for eight consecutive weeks.