US President Donald Trump has announced plans to resume nuclear weapons testing, citing other countries' programs, but experts say no such tests are occurring elsewhere and resumption is improbable. The move would violate decades of treaties and serve only symbolic purposes amid rising global tensions. Researchers warn it could escalate risks without scientific benefits.
On an unspecified recent date, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that, due to “other countries [sic] testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.” However, experts contacted by New Scientist emphasize that no other nation is conducting nuclear bomb detonations. Russia has demonstrated a nuclear-powered underwater drone and missile, but these involved no explosions.
Modernization efforts are underway at historical test sites, including China's in Xinjiang, Russia's in an Arctic Ocean archipelago, and the US site in the Nevada desert, possibly for posturing rather than actual testing. Such tests would contradict key treaties: the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty, signed by the UK, US, and Soviet Union, which prohibits atmospheric, underwater, and outer space tests while allowing underground ones; and the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which aims to ban all tests, though unratified, it has held effectively.
Historically, over 2,000 nuclear tests occurred from the US's first detonation, Trinity, in 1945, until the CTBT's drafting. The US last tested in 1992, with India and Pakistan conducting a few in 1998 and North Korea's most recent in 2017.
Experts express skepticism. John Preston at the University of Essex calls it “Trumpian rhetoric” with no intent to detonate, but warns of escalation risks, noting reduced understanding of nuclear ladders since the Cold War. “All the science is really known about the effects of nuclear weapons. There’s nothing more to know,” he says.
Christoph Laucht at Swansea University views it as a backward step, especially with the New START treaty expiring on February 4, 2026, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty already defunct. “I think there is a legitimate concern that this might be the start of a new kind of nuclear arms race,” Laucht says.
Sara Pozzi at the University of Michigan states resumption would “undermine global stability, provoke other nations to restart their own nuclear explosive testing programmes and threaten decades of progress toward nuclear arms control.” Nick Ritchie at the University of York suggests Trump may mean testing delivery systems like missiles, which occur routinely, rather than warheads, as full testing would require years of preparation.
Nuclear simulations on US supercomputers already ensure stockpile reliability without physical tests, providing no scientific justification for resumption.