Entering its tenth day on March 9, 2026, the US-Israel-Iran war—already disrupting Middle East supplies as reported earlier—saw Brent oil spike to $120 per barrel amid Iran's 90% traffic cutoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatens escalated strikes and eases sanctions, while banks eye $150 peaks and G7 holds off on reserves.
The conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 and has already slashed outputs from Iraq, Kuwait, and others while naming Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader, intensified market chaos on March 9. Brent crude surged from Friday's $92 close to nearly $120 on Monday—the biggest daily gain since 1988—before easing below $100 after President Trump's comments that the war is 'practically concluded.'
Kpler data confirms a 90% drop in Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, vital for 20% of global oil and gas. Trump posted on Truth Social: 'If Iran does anything to interrupt the flow of oil... it will be hit... TWENTY TIMES MORE STRONGLY,' and announced suspending 'some oil-related sanctions' to curb prices, potentially easing Russian exports and tapping reserves.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned of $200 oil if the West persists, rejecting ceasefires. Banks updated outlooks: Barclays at $150 worst-case, Goldman Sachs baseline $80 but adjustable if Hormuz stays shut. G7 finance ministers, meeting Tuesday, deferred releasing 300-400 million barrels, per France's Roland Lescure. Analysts cite geopolitical premiums and speculation for swings.
In Brazil, war hasn't deterred investors: B3 reports R$42.9 billion foreign inflows by March 4, topping 2025 totals. Bradesco BBI's André Moor eyes R$40-45 billion in IPOs soon, though logistics face route delays and costs.
