President Donald Trump ordered US and Israeli attacks on Tehran in the early morning of February 28, 2026, prompting an Iranian missile response against Israel. This Middle East conflict endangers global oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's crude passes. In Mexico, which imports gasoline, it could lead to price hikes if the conflict persists.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel bombed Tehran, Iran's capital, in an operation called Epic Fury, according to reports. In response, Iran launched missiles at Israel. This military escalation has raised concerns in energy markets due to Iran's strategic position at the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of crude daily, equivalent to 3% of global output and fourth in OPEC. Although the maritime route remains open, some oil tankers have avoided it, accumulating on both sides, per tracking data. An explosion was reported on Kharg Island, Iran's main export hub, but no damage to the oil terminal was specified.
Iran's supreme leader had previously warned of a potential 'regional war' and closure of the Strait of Hormuz if attacked, an extreme measure that could spike global prices. Saudi Arabia exported 7.3 million barrels daily in the first 24 days of February, the highest in nearly three years, while flows from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE also rose.
In the market, with futures closed for the weekend, a retail product quoted West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at 75.33 dollars per barrel, up 12% from Friday. Prices have risen 19% this year due to attack risks. For Mexico, a gasoline importer, a prolonged closure would raise costs, though the government might apply fiscal stimuli. The conflict's duration and impact on key infrastructure will determine the effects.
