Iranian airspace closed on Wednesday night amid signs of an imminent US attack, but no strike occurred, leaving experts to describe it as part of President Trump's characteristic unpredictability. Military assets moved and bases partially evacuated, yet Trump shifted his tone, stating that killings in Iran had stopped. Analysts view this as a psychological operation to confuse Tehran while US forces reposition.
On Wednesday night, Iranian airspace closed, prompting fears of an impending American strike. Military assets shifted, US bases saw partial evacuations, and regional tension escalated, but the anticipated attack did not materialize. Experts attribute this to the 'fog of Trump,' the president's pattern of unpredictability that keeps adversaries guessing.
Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Daily Wire: 'The bottom line is, it appears that Trump had made a decision, reversed his decision, and may yet reverse it again. This is the fog of Trump, not the fog of war. Everything appeared to be moving toward an operation, and then that operation was apparently called off. What happens next is a big question.'
Earlier that day, Trump, who had previously threatened strikes if protesters were killed, stated from the Oval Office that he believed the 'killings in Iran have stopped.' He reiterated this Thursday, but when asked by NBC News if he had ruled out military intervention, he replied: 'I’m not going to tell you that.' Al Jazeera reported that Trump communicated to Iran no strike was planned, while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) indicated the debate was over scale: whether the operation 'should be bigger or smaller.'
Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran described recent events as 'a concerted psyop, or psychological operation, that has been meant to confuse the decision-making of the Islamic Republic of Iran while the U.S. prepares for a military strike and moves assets into place.' A key indicator is the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group moving from the South China Sea to the Middle East, a week-long journey to the CENTCOM theater.
This echoes tactics before US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites during the 12-Day War last summer, where mixed messaging preceded action. Arab nations urged Trump not to attack, and per the New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested a postponement to prepare defenses. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin confirmed the IDF is on full alert. Schanzer noted: 'The region is on high alert. The Israelis are preparing for a potential onslaught of ballistic missiles from the Iranian regime.' Iran has threatened retaliation against US bases.
Schanzer emphasized Trump's 'maximum flexibility,' with cyber, economic, and diplomatic options available, including targeting technology behind Iran's 8-day internet blackout. On Thursday, the Treasury Department imposed new sanctions on officials like Ali Larijani and Mohammad Reza Hashemifar for the regime's crackdown on protesters.
Amid Iranian street protests, Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) urged US support for regime change, saying: 'It’s not our job to go and conduct regime change, but we should help these people take out the trash.' Brodsky praised Trump's unprecedented backing of Iranians: 'The president has gone further than any American president in history by being on the side of the Iranian people.' Trump's approach draws comparisons to an evolved Monroe Doctrine, prioritizing intervention, though experts note it flips Theodore Roosevelt's emphasis on diplomacy first.
