The Asian Development Bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea to 1.9 percent, driven by rising exports and improved private consumption. This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from its December prediction. The outlook matches 1.9 percent projections from the IMF and Korea Development Institute, while the Bank of Korea expects 2 percent.
Seoul's finance ministry said on Friday that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its growth outlook for South Korea this year to 1.9 percent. The Manila-based bank's revised forecast reflects strong semiconductor exports amid a global industry upcycle, along with expectations of expansionary fiscal policy and a key interest rate cut supporting domestic demand recovery.
The ADB also cited anticipated effects from increased government spending in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, defense, and biotechnology. However, it highlighted downside risks including potential additional U.S. tariff measures, sluggish construction activity, and uncertainty in AI-related chip demand.
The ministry explained that the ADB's outlook assumes Middle East tensions will stabilize within one month, following widened economic uncertainty since U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. It noted that effects from South Korea's supplementary budget are not factored in, so actual growth could differ.
For 2027, the ADB expects South Korea's economy to grow by 1.9 percent.
