Researchers from the University of Illinois Chicago forecast that rising global temperatures could bring up to 75% more precipitation to the Sahara Desert by the end of the 21st century. Using 40 climate models, the study projects widespread rainfall increases across Africa, though some areas may become drier. The findings highlight the need for adaptation strategies to handle shifting climate patterns.
The Sahara Desert, one of the driest regions on Earth with just 3 inches of annual precipitation—about one-tenth of Chicago's—may face a dramatic transformation. A new study from the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, predicts that by the latter half of the 21st century (2050-2099), the Sahara could receive up to 75% more rain than its historical average from 1965-2014. This projection comes from simulations using 40 climate models under moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
Lead author Thierry Ndetatsin Taguela, a postdoctoral climate researcher in UIC's College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, emphasized the broad impacts: "Changing rainfall patterns will affect billions of people, both in and outside Africa." The research shows southeastern Africa gaining about 25% more rainfall and south-central Africa 17% more, while the southwestern region could see a 5% decrease, leading to drier conditions.
"The Sahara is projected to almost double its historical precipitation levels, which is surprising for such a climatologically dry region," Taguela said. He noted considerable uncertainty in model projections, stressing the need to improve them for reliable regional planning. The increases are attributed to a warming atmosphere holding more moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation, which could reshape Africa's environment, agriculture, and sustainability.
Taguela works in UIC's Climate Research Lab, led by Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola. "Understanding the physical mechanisms driving precipitation is essential for developing adaptation strategies that can withstand both wetter and drier futures," he added, urging preparations like flood management and drought-resistant crops.