A mysterious bettor on the prediction platform Polymarket made over $400,000 by wagering on the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the removal of President Nicolás Maduro. The successful bets, placed just before a U.S. military operation captured Maduro, have raised concerns about potential insider trading using classified information. Authorities are now scrutinizing the platform's role in such high-stakes predictions.
In the early hours of Saturday, the U.S. military launched a special operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, bringing them to the United States to face narco-terrorism charges. This action followed President Trump's December statement that Maduro's days were "numbered," though details of the operation remained closely guarded.
U.S. officials revealed that Trump authorized the mission before Christmas, with the exact timing undecided until late Friday night at the Pentagon. That same evening, before the news broke publicly, an anonymous Polymarket user placed their largest bet of more than $14,000 on the invasion and Maduro's removal. The account, which had made only 13 bets totaling $33,934.34 between December 27 and January 3, correctly anticipated these events, netting over $400,000 in winnings.
Polymarket, a site where users bet cryptocurrency on real-world outcomes, allows public viewing of wagers but does not connect users directly. The bettor's identity, location, and access to information—whether classified knowledge or sheer luck—remain unknown. A Chainalysis spokesperson noted that the winner cashed out in Solana cryptocurrency via a major U.S. exchange without apparent efforts to conceal the transaction, making them traceable if investigated.
At least four other accounts bet smaller amounts, $700 to $900, on Maduro being out of office by January's end, earning $7,000 to $14,000. These cases highlight broader worries about prediction markets enabling insiders to profit from sensitive data. For instance, past incidents include map manipulations in Russia-Ukraine betting and political insider wagers, like those by former Data for Progress staffer Sean McElwee.
The platforms operate in a legal gray area. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission dropped a probe against Polymarket this summer and approved it as a U.S. exchange on November 25, though new users must affirm they are not U.S.-based. Congressman Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., plans to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, aiming to criminalize using nonpublic information on such sites.
David Chase, a former SEC attorney, explained, "I think that the courts are going to have to catch up to this, as they typically do," regarding the application of fraud laws to prediction betting.
