China captured nearly 90% of global humanoid robot sales in 2025, with domestic firms Unitree and Agibot topping the charts. American companies, including Tesla, sold far fewer units despite ambitious targets. This early dominance mirrors China's strategy in electric vehicles, bolstered by state support and supply chains.
In 2025, the humanoid robot sector saw its first significant commercial activity, with global sales ranging from 13,000 to 18,000 units, according to research from Omdia and IDC. These robots, designed to mimic human form, found primary applications in research, retail, and industrial settings. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict mass adoption could begin in the late 2030s, propelling the market to $38 billion by 2035 and $5 trillion by 2050.
Chinese manufacturers dominated, accounting for almost 90% of sales and claiming six of the top-selling companies. Unitree, based in China, led with 5,500 units sold—its first public disclosure of figures—while Shanghai's Agibot followed closely with 5,168. This rivalry echoes China's electric vehicle ascent, driven by early government backing and rapid scaling.
The sector's growth stems from Beijing's strategic priorities. Humanoid robots were highlighted in the 2021 14th Five-Year Plan as a key area for breakthroughs, with state funds supporting testing facilities and firms. Tech analyst Lian Jye Su of Omdia attributes the edge to 'a combination of policy support, public investment, mature supply chain, and advancements made in AI software and hardware.' He added that Chinese vendors increasingly incorporate local components, enhancing cost efficiency and innovation speed.
In contrast, the three non-Chinese entries on Omdia's top-sellers list—U.S.-based Figure AI, Agility Robotics, and Tesla—each moved only about 150 units. Tesla aimed for 5,000 Optimus robots in 2025 but fell short. CEO Elon Musk, speaking at the World Economic Forum recently, conceded China's prowess: 'China is very good at AI, very good at manufacturing, and will definitely be the toughest competition for Tesla.' He noted no major rivals outside China but predicted Optimus would surpass alternatives. Developed for over five years, Optimus currently handles simple factory tasks, with public sales eyed for late 2027.
Su suggests the West can counter through strengths in AI and software, avoiding reliance on Chinese hardware.
