Egypt's urban inflation stabilizes at 12.3% in December 2025

The Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics announced that Egypt's annual urban inflation rate stabilized at 12.3% in December 2025, unchanged from November. Month-on-month inflation eased to 0.2%, signaling ongoing slowdown in price pressures. Declines in food prices primarily drove this stability.

The Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) issued a statement on Saturday confirming that the annual inflation rate in Egypt's urban areas held steady at 12.3% for December 2025. This matched the November figure, while month-on-month inflation dipped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Nationally, the consumer price index (CPI) stood at 264.2 points, reflecting an annual inflation of 10.3% against 23.4% in December 2024.

CAPMAS credited the primary drop to falling prices in key spending categories, especially food. Meat and poultry prices fell 1.1%, dairy products, cheese, and eggs declined 1.2%, fruits dropped 1%, vegetables 2%, and sugar 0.1%. Non-food items also eased, with household appliances down 0.5% and audio-visual, photographic, and information-processing equipment off 0.4%.

Still, modest rises occurred in several areas, including cereals and bread (0.1%), oils and fats (0.3%), fabrics (1.6%), ready-made garments (0.4%), and electricity, gas, and other fuels (1.6%). Overall monthly inflation for the republic increased 0.1% in December.

This data followed the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt's decision to cut key rates by 1% at its last 2025 meeting, setting the overnight deposit rate at 20%, lending rate at 21%, and main operation rate at 20.5%. The MPC projected further inflation declines in 2026, nearing the official target of 7% ±2% by the fourth quarter. It warned, however, that non-food inflation's slow easing, fiscal consolidation, and global geopolitical tensions could moderate the pace.

The committee plans eight meetings in 2026, starting February 12, to assess policy rates. The cuts represent a cumulative 7.25% reduction across five 2025 meetings, signaling a shift from tightening to easing.

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Central Bank raises growth projection to 2-3% for 2026

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Chile's Central Bank released its December Monetary Policy Report, raising the GDP growth projection for 2026 to 2% to 3%, driven by higher investment and copper prices. Inflation will converge to 3% in the first quarter of 2026, in a more favorable scenario than anticipated. Experts agree on the optimism but highlight risks in the labor market and abroad.

Egypt’s urban inflation eased slightly in November 2025, dipping to 12.3% from 12.5% in October, according to data released by the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS). Monthly inflation slowed markedly to 0.3%, compared with 1.8% in the previous month. CAPMAS reported that the nationwide consumer price index reached 263.8 points.

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Annual urban headline inflation in Egypt remained stable at around 12.3% in December 2025, virtually unchanged from November, according to the Central Bank of Egypt. The dynamics continue to be driven primarily by non-food prices, as food inflation has fallen back to pre-2022 levels. Annual food inflation declined sharply to 1.5%.

Salaries rose 1.8% in November 2025, below that month's 2.5% inflation, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censos (INDEC). From January to November, incomes increased an average of 36%, exceeding the 27.9% inflation for the period. However, growth in registered employment lagged behind the informal sector.

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The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics released its monthly Foreign Trade Data bulletin for October 2025, showing Egypt's trade deficit at $4.58bn, up 1.3% from the previous year. Exports fell 1.1% to $4.17bn, while imports edged up 0.18% to $8.75bn.

The Egyptian market awaits banks' return to business on Sunday following the weekend break to assess the impact of the Central Bank of Egypt's decision last Thursday to cut interest rates by 1% on returns from savings products and borrowing costs. The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the bank's key policy rates to 20% for overnight deposits, 21% for overnight lending, and 20.5% for both the main operation rate and the credit and discount rate.

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