German residential property prices approach 2022 record levels

Prices for residential properties in Germany are rising and nearing the summer 2022 peak. Gero Bergmann, president of the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp), expects further increases due to a growing housing shortage. In the fourth quarter of 2025, prices rose 4.2 percent nationwide year-over-year.

Gero Bergmann, president of the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) and board member at BayernLB, highlighted rising property prices at a vdp event in Frankfurt on Wednesday. He noted that the upward trend starting in 2024 continued through 2025.

"Prices for residential properties are now not far from their record level reached in summer 2022," Bergmann stated. He attributed expected further rises to an increasing shortage of housing.

Residential property prices climbed 4.2 percent nationwide in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year. In 2022, rapidly rising interest rates had pressured the market, hitting commercial properties harder than residential ones.

Bergmann was cautious about the outlook for 2026. The war in Iran is heightening market uncertainty and fueling inflation, which could make financing more expensive and dampen demand.

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Despite rent caps, advertised rents in 14 German cities have risen an average of 43 percent over the past ten years. Berlin saw the highest increase at 69 percent. This comes from the federal government's response to a query by Left Party MP Caren Lay.

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Housing prices rose 12.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, according to the National Statistics Institute, marking 11 straight years of continuous increases.

Economists on the scientific advisory board to the Stability Council forecast an excessive deficit of 4.25 percent for 2026. They urge the federal government to make more savings to avoid breaching EU debt rules.

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Mario Andrés Ramírez, president of Fedelonjas, warned of a 6.5% drop in new housing sales in the first quarter of 2026 compared to 2025, due to high credit costs and fewer subsidies. In cities, nearly half the population lives in apartments, with rentals becoming the dominant form of occupancy. The federation calls for professional management of the rental market.

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