The US-Israel war in Iran is driving up construction material costs in Spain due to surging energy prices, prompting developers to anticipate higher new home prices. Experts forecast additional increases of 2 to 5 percentage points, depending on the conflict's duration. This adds to the 11.3% rise seen in 2025.
Since the attack on Tehran began, Brent oil prices have risen over 40%, exceeding 100 dollars per barrel, directly impacting energy costs and materials like steel, aluminum, cement, and ceramics.
Developers like Aurora Homes and consultants like Foro Consultores Inmobiliarios project an additional 2-3 percentage points on expected prices. Carlos Smerdou, CEO of Foro Consultores, states: «It has a direct impact on construction, as it raises the cost of basic materials». Jorge Ginés of Asprima adds that a 10% rise in construction costs would mean 5 more points in development costs, passed on to buyers.
Gloval consultancy forecasts a 10% cost increase if the conflict drags on, akin to prior effects from Covid and Russia's Ukraine invasion. Alejandro Bermúdez of Atlas Real Estate Analytics estimates a 3.2% construction cost hike from current energy surges, with new home price effects of 0.9-1.34% in 12-18 months.
Experts warn of project delays and reduced supply. Pedro Fernández Alén, CNC president, calls for price revision systems based on INE indices. Metrovacesa sources note construction costs account for about 50% of sale prices, but outcomes depend on buyers' payment capacity.
