Scientists in Brazil and Peru are using machine learning for early outbreak predictions and Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to curb dengue fever, amid rising cases fueled by climate change. In Lima, a 2024 epidemic overwhelmed hospitals, prompting adaptations now informing regional strategies. These efforts offer models as subtropical U.S. areas report local transmissions.
In early 2024, Santa Rosa hospital in Lima, Peru, faced an unprecedented dengue wave, treating 40 to 60 patients daily at its peak, up from just 13 the prior year. Epidemiologist Solomon Durand, drawing from Amazon experience, set up triage tents and segregated wards, limiting deaths to four among nearly 2,000 cases. 'That caught our attention,' Durand said of local cases in affluent districts, linking the surge to El Niño rains and record heat—Peru's warmest year in six decades. Hotter conditions accelerate Aedes aegypti mosquito development and dengue virus replication, with a University of Washington study attributing 18 percent of 1995-2014 cases in high-risk nations to human-caused warming. Projections warn of 50 percent more cases by midcentury without emission cuts. Globally, dengue hit 14 million cases and 9,000 deaths in 2024, mostly in the Americas. In southern Brazil, entomologist Luciano Andrade Moreira leads Wolbito do Brasil, producing 100 million Wolbachia-infected eggs weekly in Curitiba. The bacteria blocks dengue in mosquitoes, slashing cases nearly 90 percent in Niterói post-releases. Seventeen Brazilian cities declared emergencies in 2024 as hospitals overflowed. In Peru's Amazon, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar's InnovaLab deploys sensors, drones, and AI via the Harmonize project to forecast outbreaks three months ahead, aiding resource shifts. 'The mosquito is extremely well-designed—very intelligent, very adaptable,' Carrasco-Escobar noted. In the U.S., California's first local dengue cases emerged in 2023, prompting sterile mosquito releases, but experts like Durand see parallels to Lima: 'That’s how we started. With local cases.' A stalled SMASH Act seeks $100 million yearly for surveillance.