A new study indicates that reliable predictions of Antarctic ice loss are possible until around the middle of this century. This window could allow governments time to prepare for sea level rise before uncertainty grows sharply later in the century.
The research, published in Nature and led by Dr. Felicity McCormack of Monash University and Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, found that ice sheet models can reliably project Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise over the next 30 to 50 years if they match current observations.
"If ice sheet models accurately reproduce the rates of ice loss we observe today, we can have confidence in using those same models to reliably predict Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise over the next 30 to 50 years," Dr. McCormack said.
The study notes that predictability declines after mid-century as processes like rapid ice retreat from below-sea-level bedrock become more likely. Professor Steven Chown, director of SAEF, said the findings provide a defined period for stronger monitoring and adaptation planning, particularly for Pacific Island nations.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that Antarctic ice loss could almost double the rate of sea level rise over the next 30 years in a worst-case scenario, placing one quarter of Australian homes at flood risk under high-emission paths.