Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai has agreed to a three-year contract with the Houston Astros worth up to $63 million, including opt-out clauses after the 2026 and 2027 seasons. The 27-year-old right-hander, previously with the Saitama Seibu Lions in Nippon Professional Baseball, surprised many by choosing a shorter deal than preseason projections anticipated. While around 15 teams showed interest, concerns about his fastball translation to Major League Baseball influenced the market dynamics.
Tatsuya Imai, a 27-year-old right-handed starter from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league, signed a three-year deal with the Houston Astros on Thursday, January 1, 2026, according to league sources. The contract, which can reach a maximum of $63 million with performance incentives, includes opt-out options for Imai after the 2026 and 2027 seasons, providing him flexibility to re-enter free agency before turning 30.
Preseason projections had painted a rosier picture for Imai. The Athletic's Tim Britton forecasted an eight-year, $190 million pact, while MLB Trade Rumors estimated six years and $150 million. However, scout concerns over the movement and plane of Imai's fastball—which can reach the upper 90s mph—tempered offers. Evaluators questioned whether he could rely on the pitch effectively in the majors or if he would need to use his full arsenal early. In Japan, Imai logged over 160 innings in each of the past two seasons, but his Astros bonuses begin at 80 innings, with an extra $3 million for reaching 100.
Approximately 15 teams inquired about Imai, but the Astros emerged as a surprise destination. The deal deviates from Houston's typical avoidance of opt-outs, suggesting confidence in Imai's potential despite the risks. A league source noted that a longer-term contract might have netted him about $30 million more overall, but the shorter term offers higher annual value and future opportunities.
Reports of strong interest from teams like the Chicago Cubs have been questioned. While some outlets listed the Cubs among favorites alongside the New York Yankees, insider Robert Murray stated on a January 2 livestream, "I'd heard in the days coming in that the Cubs were unlikely as well." Murray added, "Honestly, I can say I did not see [Imai to the Astros] coming." This signing clears the path for other free agents, such as Framber Valdez, with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets still seeking rotation help.
Analysts have praised the move. Jordan Shusterman called it a "win-win," and Bradford Doolittle graded it a "B+." For the Astros, Imai bolsters a rotation needing depth, pending further offseason moves.
