At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, a pledge led by Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India calls for quadrupling sustainable fuels by 2035 to decarbonize transport. While proponents see it as a path to cleaner energy, critics warn of deforestation, higher food prices, and increased emissions from biofuel production. At least 23 countries have joined the initiative amid ongoing negotiations.
The COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, concluded its official sessions on Friday without a final deal, but a significant biofuel pledge gained traction. Spearheaded by Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India, the commitment urges rapid global expansion of sustainable fuels, targeting a fourfold increase from 2024 levels by 2035. This would cover 10 percent of road transport demand, 15 percent of aviation, and 35 percent of shipping, according to an accompanying International Energy Agency report.
By the summit's end, 23 countries had signed on, with Brazilian delegates collaborating with industry groups to incorporate pro-biofuel language into the main outcome document. Brazil's special envoy for agriculture, Roberto Rodrigues, highlighted the country's model during a panel: “Latin America, South East Asia, Africa — they need to improve their efficiency, their energy, and Brazil has a model for this [in its rollout of biofuels].” In Brazil, biofuels constitute about a quarter of transportation fuels, primarily sugarcane ethanol, and this share continues to rise.
However, biofuels, mostly derived from food crops like sugarcane, corn, soybeans, wheat, rapeseed, and palm oil, face criticism for their environmental and food security costs. Global production has grown ninefold since 2000, occupying over 40 million hectares—roughly the size of Paraguay—with projections suggesting biofuel crops could demand land equivalent to France by 2030. An analysis indicates biofuels generate 16 percent more CO2 emissions than fossil fuels when accounting for indirect land-use changes, including deforestation.
Janet Ranganathan of the World Resources Institute cautioned: “While countries are right to transition away from fossil fuels, they also need to ensure their plans don’t trigger unintended consequences, such as more deforestation either at home or abroad.” She noted significant land implications without safeguards. University of Minnesota scientist Jason Hill added that emissions accounting often excludes direct and indirect impacts, diluting true effects: “Biofuel production today is already a bad idea. And doubling [that] is doubling down on an existing problem.”
Food price spikes are another concern. In the US, the Renewable Fuel Standard raised corn prices by 30 percent and soybeans and wheat by 20 percent, increasing fertilizer use by up to 8 percent and water degradation by 5 percent, with corn ethanol's carbon intensity matching gasoline. University of Colorado Boulder data scientist Ginni Braich explained: “Biofuel mandates essentially create a baseline demand that can leave food crops by the wayside,” potentially reducing dietary diversity and exacerbating vulnerabilities. She called Brazil's push paradoxical given its forest protection stance, labeling it greenwashing.
The IEA report suggests policies could double global biofuel use by 2035, but Brazil's national policy reportedly omits full emissions calculations, fueling debate on true sustainability.