A new study reveals that El Niño weather events contributed to famines across Europe between 1500 and 1800, triggering some and prolonging others. Researchers found strong associations in central Europe and broader price impacts continent-wide. Modern agriculture, however, mitigates such risks today.
El Niño, the warming phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has long been known to disrupt weather patterns globally, particularly in Pacific-bordering regions. A recent analysis by Emile Esmaili at Columbia University and colleagues extends this understanding to historical Europe.
The team reviewed records of 160 famines from 1500 to 1800, cross-referencing them with ENSO data derived from tree rings. In central Europe, over 40 percent of famine onsets coincided with El Niño periods. These events brought increased rainfall, resulting in excessive soil moisture that damaged crops and led to failures.
Beyond initiations, El Niño raised the annual chance of ongoing famines by 24 percent across nine European regions. Examining grain and fish prices, the researchers noted sustained elevations in food costs for years following these events, exacerbating hunger.
While direct causation was clearest in central areas, the economic ripples affected the entire continent. David Ubilava at the University of Sydney highlights that ENSO still poses risks to food security in parts of Asia, Oceania, and Africa today. Yet, in Europe, improved crop resilience, advanced farming techniques, accurate forecasting, and integrated markets reduce the threat. As Ubilava explains, “The same weather effect will have a very different outcome today. Crops are more resilient, production practices are much, much better, weather forecasting went from basically non-existent to pretty accurate and markets are integrated.”
This study, detailed in a preprint on EarthArXiv (DOI: 10.31223/X5GR1Q), underscores the far-reaching historical influence of Pacific climate dynamics on distant lands.
