The UNAM's Institute of Geophysics has warned of a possible super solar flare akin to the 1859 Carrington event, which could produce auroras in the Caribbean and trigger widespread technological failures globally. Researcher Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera notes that solar cycle 25, at its peak, heightens the risk of such events. The impacts might isolate modern societies for months or even years.
Researchers at the UNAM's Institute of Geophysics have issued a warning about the risk of a super solar flare during solar cycle 25, which is at its maximum phase. This alert draws from current solar activity, comparable to the Carrington Storm of September 1, 1859, when auroras were visible as far as the Caribbean and telegraph networks experienced severe disruptions.
Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera, an expert at the institute, describes how these solar explosions release radiation and plasma that interact with Earth's magnetosphere. Recent events have shown auroras in mid-latitudes, such as northern Mexico, indicating potential extension to tropical regions. Yet, the primary threat lies in impacts on technology: an extreme flare could cripple the internet, phones, satellites, and smart devices.
"If a Carrington-type solar storm happened today, it would leave us disconnected not for days, but for months or years, and all cloud-stored information would be lost. It would be like a new burning of the Library of Alexandria," warns Velasco Herrera.
To address data gaps, UNAM scientists have digitized solar flare records from 1937 to 2022 through international collaboration, supplemented by historical data from 1610. Employing artificial intelligence, they analyze patterns to forecast auroras at low latitudes. "The Sun has accumulated enough energy over 15 or 20 years to sustain its current cycle, so there are signs that auroras could still occur," adds the researcher.
These initiatives yield one of the most complete time series on solar activity, aiding preparation for potential geomagnetic storms.