The United States has extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act until the end of 2026, but ongoing tariff changes continue to undermine its benefits for African countries. South African exports, particularly automobiles, have suffered significant declines due to these uncertainties. Experts highlight increased unpredictability in US-Africa trade relations.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), in place since 2000, provides duty-free access to the US market for exports from 32 African countries. However, recent US trade policies have disrupted this framework. In April 2025, President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which largely negated Agoa's advantages. The agreement subsequently lapsed on 30 September 2025 without initial renewal.
African exports to the US fell sharply as a result. Data from the Trade Law Centre shows a 32% drop in Agoa exports for the year ending November 2025 compared to 2024. South Africa's automobile exports under Agoa plummeted nearly 75%, from 25,544 vehicles in 2024 to 6,530 in 2025. Despite this, overall South African vehicle exports rose almost 6% to a record 414,268 units, thanks to alternative markets.
In a surprising development, the US Congress passed an extension of Agoa until 31 December 2026 as part of a budget bill, retroactive to 30 September 2025. President Trump signed it into law on 3 February 2026. Yet, Donald MacKay, Director at XA Global Trade Advisors, described the revival as largely meaningless, noting that benefits are overridden by tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act on products like automobiles, steel, and aluminium.
Complications continued when the US Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariffs on 20 February 2026, ruling that Trump exceeded his authority. In response, Trump enacted a 10% tariff surcharge on all countries under section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, effective 24 February and set to expire on 24 July. He has threatened to raise it to 15%.
Eckart Naumann, an independent economist associated with the Trade Law Centre, pointed out that while Agoa's renewal restores some preference margins, the new surcharges still apply, reducing the number of duty-free tariff lines. For South Africa, this lowers the effective tariff from 30% to 10% on many goods, though automobiles face 25% duties and steel and aluminium 50%. Naumann emphasized the heightened uncertainty, predicting potential legal challenges to the surcharge.
South Africa's eligibility for Agoa renewal, decided annually in December, remains in doubt following President Cyril Ramaphosa's recent comments to the New York Times, where he called Trump "truly uninformed" about South Africa and described some of his policies as "racist".
Other African nations face similar challenges. Lesotho, hit with a 50% tariff in April 2025 due to its trade surplus, negotiated it down to 15%. Trade and Industry Minister Mokhethi Shelile noted that recent developments have created uncertainty for exporters, stressing the need for uniform tariffs to level the playing field with competitors like Kenya and Eswatini. He added that even equal rates can squeeze margins for small, export-dependent economies like Lesotho's.
