A shift to healthier diets worldwide could transform agriculture and sharply reduce emissions from land-use change by 2050, according to new modeling published in Nature.
The study projects that following recommendations from the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission would lower global farmland use by up to 6 percent compared with current trends. Livestock production value could drop 42 percent, or $630 billion, from 2020 levels, with ruminant herds shrinking by roughly 400 million animals.
Plant-based sectors would expand in the opposite direction. The combined value of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and legumes could rise 57 percent, or $890 billion, the models indicate.
Regional impacts would differ markedly. The United States could see total agricultural output fall 21 percent while India’s could increase 46 percent, the researchers found.
Dr. Matt Gibson of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine said governments must confront powerful interests that benefit from the current system. Co-author Daniel Mason-D’Croz of Cornell University stressed that the scenarios are guides for policy decisions made today rather than predictions.