A new study reveals that the collapse of Classic Maya cities involved more than just drought, including climate shifts, conflict, and agricultural economies of scale. Researchers found that improving rural conditions eventually drew people away from urban centers. The findings challenge long-held views on ancient urbanization.
Archaeologists led by Douglas Kennett from the University of California, Santa Barbara, have developed a model explaining the rise and fall of Classic Maya cities in the Lowlands. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the research integrates population ecology theory to analyze how various forces shaped ancient urban patterns.
The study highlights that city growth stemmed from climate downturns, intergroup conflict, and strong economies of scale through investments in agricultural infrastructure. "We determined that the rise and expansion of Classic Maya cities resulted from the interaction of climate downturns, intergroup conflict and the presence of strong economies of scale realized through capital investments in agricultural infrastructure," Kennett stated. These elements fostered urbanism, inequality, and patron-client relationships, making crowded city life appealing despite costs like disease exposure and resource competition.
Since 2012, the team has gathered data on population movements, warfare, and farming systems. Recent advances in high-resolution climate records and computational modeling enabled a comprehensive analysis. The model unifies prior theories on environmental pressures, violence, and economics.
Notably, deurbanization occurred when urban benefits diminished. Degraded city environments and climate improvements enhanced rural livability, offering greater autonomy. "The biggest surprise for me was that the abandonment of cities occurred under improving climatic conditions," Kennett observed. This complicates the narrative of drought as the sole culprit in the Maya collapse around the 9th century.
The framework provides insights into urban evolution, applicable to both historical and modern contexts, showing why agrarian societies sometimes centralized despite inherent drawbacks.