A new study warns that the Taurid meteor shower, famous for its Halloween fireballs, may carry hidden dangers from a potential debris swarm. Led by researcher Mark Boslough, the research examines increased impact risks from near-Earth objects in 2032 and 2036. Scientists urge targeted observations to assess and mitigate these threats.
The Taurid meteor shower graces the skies each fall from late October through early November, appearing to radiate from the constellation Taurus and earning the nickname 'Halloween fireballs.' These meteors stem from debris shed by Comet Encke, which Earth encounters twice yearly—once at night in autumn and again during daylight in June as the Beta Taurids.
A recent study, published in Acta Astronautica and presented at the Planetary Defense Conference in Cape Town, South Africa, delves into potential hazards within the Taurid stream. Led by Research Professor Mark Boslough from the University of New Mexico, the paper titled '2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?' investigates whether a 'Taurid resonant swarm'—a cluster of small objects influenced by Jupiter's gravity—could heighten the chance of airbursts or impacts.
"The resonant swarm is theoretical, but there is some evidence that a sparse swarm of small objects exists because bright fireballs and seismic signatures of impacts on the moon have been observed at times that the theory has predicted," Boslough explained. These objects orbit the sun in a 7:2 resonance with Jupiter, potentially grouping denser debris.
The study predicts close approaches of this hypothetical swarm to Earth in 2032 and 2036, when existing telescopes could detect them. Boslough notes that while overall probabilities remain low, enhanced risks could involve airbursts similar to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, which involved a 60-foot object exploding with half a megaton of TNT force, or the more powerful 1908 Tunguska blast.
"Our findings are that we have the technology to test the Taurid resonant swarm by using existing telescopes for targeted sky surveys in 2032 and 2036," Boslough said. Supported by NASA and the National Nuclear Security Administration, the research emphasizes planetary defense efforts, including surveys, modeling, and public preparedness. Boslough advises skepticism toward misinformation on social media about NEO impacts and recommends avoiding windows during potential events to prevent injuries from flying glass.
For viewing this year's shower, look after 2 a.m. on Halloween night from dark-sky sites like those in New Mexico.