A POLITICO survey conducted by Public First found that 44% of U.S. adults said betting on election outcomes should be illegal, reflecting public unease about political prediction markets as they expand beyond elections into wagers tied to government actions.
The POLITICO Poll, conducted by Public First from May 17 to 19, surveyed 2,035 U.S. adults. In the poll, 44% said betting on election outcomes should be illegal.
The survey also tested attitudes toward wagers beyond election results, including markets tied to presidential actions such as statements and pardons, which similarly drew skeptical responses.
Separately, the poll found many respondents were not interested in using prediction markets themselves. Younger adults expressed more familiarity and interest than older groups, though the survey suggested most Americans have not placed political wagers.
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) criticized election betting as a threat to democratic trust, warning that large financial stakes could invite efforts to influence outcomes. In a previous statement on election gambling, Merkley argued that the combination of “big bets” and “dark money” could undermine confidence in elections.
Prediction-market operators and their supporters have defended event contracts as a way to aggregate information and forecast outcomes. Polymarket, which operates outside the United States after a Commodity Futures Trading Commission settlement that restricted its U.S. activity, has said it enforces rules intended to prevent manipulation and other misconduct.
Legal debates over political event contracts have intensified in recent years as regulated exchanges such as Kalshi have sought approval for election-related markets while critics press regulators and lawmakers to limit or ban them.
