Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 16% year-over-year decline and missing Wall Street estimates. The results highlight ongoing demand challenges and setbacks in the Optimus robot program, though energy storage deployments provided a bright spot. Shares rose 3% following President Trump's endorsement of Elon Musk.
Tesla's fourth-quarter 2025 vehicle deliveries totaled 418,227 units, falling short of the 422,850 units expected by analysts and representing a 16% drop from the prior year. For the full year, the company shipped 1.64 million vehicles, missing its 2 million target for the second consecutive year. Production in the quarter reached 434,358 units, down from 459,445 in Q4 2024.
These figures come amid mounting headwinds, including the phase-out of EV subsidies in major markets and intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers and European brands. Tesla's gross margins stood at 17.01% over the trailing twelve months, reflecting pressure on profitability.
On a positive note, the energy storage segment performed strongly. Deployments hit 14.2 GWh in Q4, exceeding estimates of 13.4 GWh and surpassing the 11.0 GWh from the year-ago period. Annual deployments reached a record 46.7 GWh, up from 31.4 GWh in 2024.
The Optimus humanoid robot project faced significant hurdles, with reports indicating manual assembly requirements, inadequate motor control for industrial use, and persistent software integration issues. Initial plans for widespread factory deployment by 2026 have been delayed, casting doubt on its commercial viability and Elon Musk's vision for it to surpass the automotive business.
Despite the delivery miss, Tesla shares climbed 3% to $451.05 on January 6, 2026, buoyed by President Donald Trump's public endorsement of Musk as a leading innovator and praise for Tesla's role in American tech. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Overweight rating with a $510 price target, citing potential catalysts like Full Self-Driving expansion to China and Europe in the first half of 2026, Robotaxi network growth, Cybercab production, and Semi truck ramp-up in Q2.
Tesla is set to report Q4 earnings on January 28, 2026. Broader concerns include a stretched valuation at 147x forward 2027 P/E and decelerating growth in energy storage revenue per GWh.
