Mexico became Cuba's main oil supplier in 2025, overtaking Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro's capture. Pemex sends high-quality light crudes like Istmo and Olmeca, suited to the island's outdated refineries, though this imposes a significant economic cost on the country. President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed the shipments will continue as humanitarian aid, despite potential reprisals from Donald Trump.
In 2025, Mexico dramatically increased its oil and derivatives shipments to Cuba, becoming its main supplier according to customs data and Financial Times reports. An investigation by Mexicanos Contra la Corrupción y la Impunidad (MCCI) revealed that Pemex, through its subsidiary Gasolinas Bienestar, exported hydrocarbons worth over $3.048 billion from January to September, though it only reported $400 million to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This accounts for just 13% of the real value, with 60 shipments from the port of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, including crude, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Shipments surged between May 29 and June 27, 2025, with 39 cargoes valued at over $850 million, totaling 10.23 million barrels of crude and 132.5 million liters of fuels. Experts like Jorge Piñón from the University of Texas Energy Institute explain that Pemex sends its lightest crudes—Istmo and Olmeca—because Cuba's outdated refineries, with only two of four operational, cannot process heavy, high-sulfur crude. “Each barrel of light crude sent to Cuba means a barrel that is not refined in Mexico or sold under more favorable conditions,” warns Piñón, highlighting the opportunity cost amid declining production, with Pemex averaging 1.633 million barrels daily in 2025, 50% heavy crude.
Cuba consumes 100-110 thousand barrels daily, producing only 40 thousand of local heavy crude, facing a 60-thousand-barrel deficit that Mexico covers with 20-22 thousand. After Trump's ban on Venezuela, Mexico took over, but shipments dropped from September 2025 and continued into 2026, such as the Ocean Mariner with 86 thousand barrels on December 23, 2025. Sheinbaum defends the shipments as humanitarian aid, though they are recorded as uncollectible debts for Pemex, similar to past waivers. Analysts like Ramsés Pech and Gonzalo Monroy warn of geopolitical risks, including potential 25% U.S. tariffs, and operational strains given Mexico's production below targets (1.3 million barrels daily from Pemex). Pemex provides no official volume data, creating opacity.
