Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd plunged following a fatal crash of an LCA Tejas fighter jet during an aerobatic display at the Dubai Airshow on November 21, 2025. The incident, which killed Indian Air Force pilot Wing Commander Namansh Syal, marked the second Tejas accident in under two years and sparked concerns over export prospects. Despite the volatility, brokerages maintain positive outlooks on HAL's long-term growth.
The crash occurred at Al Maktoum International Airport during a demonstration, resulting in the death of Wing Commander Namansh Syal. Initial expert assessments suggest possible causes including GE engine thrust loss, aerodynamic stall, or a negative-G maneuver, with the Indian Air Force launching a Court of Inquiry to determine the exact reason. This event is the second Tejas-related accident in less than two years, raising short-term questions about the aircraft's safety record and global marketing efforts.
HAL's stock reacted sharply, falling as much as 9% on November 24, 2025, to a seven-month low of Rs 4,205.25 before closing 3% lower at Rs 4,443 on the BSE. The sell-off reflected investor concerns over potential delays in Tejas Mk1A exports to markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where HAL opened a Malaysia office in 2023.
However, brokerages remain optimistic. Elara Capital upheld a 'Buy' rating with a target of Rs 5,680, implying 24% upside, stating the crash will not materially impact HAL's order book or deliveries. CLSA maintained an 'Outperform' call at Rs 5,436 (18% upside), viewing the volatility as a buying opportunity backed by HAL's $54 billion order pipeline. Choice Institutional Equities kept a 'Buy' at Rs 5,570 (21% upside), noting such incidents fall within operational risks for advanced fighters and that Tejas has a low accident ratio.
Defence experts acknowledged temporary image damage, with a former HAL executive telling Reuters the incident 'rules out exports for now.' Yet, Douglas A. Birkey of the Mitchell Institute believes the program will 'regain momentum.' Market analyst Siddharth Maurya described the reaction as sentiment-driven, emphasizing strong fundamentals in Indian defence indigenisation.
Technically, HAL trades in a descending channel, with support at Rs 4,450–4,500 and resistance at Rs 4,850–4,900. Analysts see no systemic flaws and expect the inquiry to provide clarity, positioning the correction as a potential accumulation chance.