A new National Federation of Independent Business report shows small-business optimism softened in October and hiring remains difficult, as owners cite health coverage costs as a mounting strain. The findings arrive as the Senate passes a bill to end a 41-day government shutdown fueled in part by a fight over expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Small-business owners are feeling the pinch from health insurance costs even as overall sentiment remains near its long-run average, according to the latest NFIB survey.
NFIB’s October Small Business Optimism Index dipped 0.6 point to 98.2, just above the federation’s 52-year average of 98. The survey’s Uncertainty Index fell 12 points to 88, its lowest reading this year. Labor quality remained the top problem reported by owners. (NFIB October 2025 report.)
Premium trends underpinning those concerns are notable. A federal analysis found average premiums in the individual market rose 143% from 2013 to 2019 as the ACA’s major reforms took effect. And for 2026, ACA marketplace insurers’ posted rates point to an average 26% increase in what plans charge, though what many enrollees actually pay depends on subsidies. Separate KFF estimates indicate that if the pandemic-era, enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025, subsidized enrollees’ net payments would, on average, more than double in 2026. (CMS; KFF.)
Some owners describe the squeeze in stark terms. The Daily Wire reported that NFIB members from Pennsylvania and Ohio said coverage costs “go up every year” and are becoming “increasingly difficult” for firms and workers to afford. (Attribution: The Daily Wire.)
The policy fight over those subsidies helped drive Washington’s recent stalemate. On November 10, the Senate voted 60–40 to advance a stopgap funding package after seven Democrats and Independent Angus King joined Republicans. The bill funds agencies through January 30 and guarantees a Senate vote in December on the ACA subsidies but does not extend them. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer opposed the measure, arguing on the floor that “this health care crisis is so severe, so urgent, so devastating for families back home” that he could not support the continuing resolution without addressing it. The legislation now awaits House action and the president’s signature to fully reopen the government. (Senate vote tallies and news reports.)
Hiring remains challenging for many small firms. In October, 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill; 28% had openings for skilled workers. Within construction, 49% of firms cited labor quality as their single most important problem—well above the share across all industries. (NFIB.)
Demographics add pressure. Federal labor data show the median age of manufacturing workers is about 44, while construction’s median is roughly 42—pointing to aging core workforces. (BLS.) At the same time, several surveys and industry reports suggest Gen Z interest in skilled trades has risen, with respondents citing the high cost of college and concern about AI disrupting entry-level white-collar roles. (Resume Builder/CNBC/other reporting.)
Outlook: NFIB’s economists noted that the shutdown likely contributed to October’s softer readings even as uncertainty eased. Owners remain cautious but expect conditions to improve if federal operations resume and policy clarity increases. Whether ACA subsidies are extended—or lapse at year’s end—will heavily influence what many small employers and their employees pay for health coverage in 2026.
