イラク戦争の教訓がイラン政権交代の見方に影響

米国がイランに対する軍事作戦を開始し、2003年のイラク侵攻との比較を呼んでいる。NPRのレイラ・ファデル記者が、イランでの政権交代の可能性についての歴史的な類似点と専門家の評価を検証する。イランの最高指導者アリ・ハメネイ師の殺害に祝賀の声が上がったが、潜在的な不安定さへの懸念が残っている。

米国とイスラエルによる最近のイランへの攻撃は、2003年のイラク戦争を想起させる政権交代をめぐる議論を巻き起こした。ドナルド・トランプ大統領は作戦を発表し、「まもなく、米国軍はイランで大規模な戦闘作戦を開始した。私たちの目的は、イラン政権からの差し迫った脅威を排除することでアメリカ国民を守ることだ」と述べた。これは、イラクで軍が同国を武装解除し、認識された脅威から守ることを目指したジョージ・W・ブッシュ大統領の演説を彷彿とさせるものだ。

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Illustration depicting the U.S.-Israel airstrike obliterating an underground Iranian leadership bunker in Tehran amid Operation Epic Fury.
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U.S.-Israel strikes destroy Iranian leadership bunker in Operation Epic Fury

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On March 6, 2026, Israeli forces, backed by U.S. coordination, obliterated an underground command bunker in Tehran as part of the escalating Operation Epic Fury, now in its second week. The strike follows initial attacks that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top officials, with President Trump demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and pledging U.S. involvement in selecting a new leader.

After the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian crowds celebrate and nurture hope for real change. US President Donald Trump urges them to seize the moment and take power. This situation stems from a military operation by the United States and Israel against the Iranian regime.

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Following initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Trump warned of continued bombing until regime change, while Democrats push a War Powers Resolution demanding congressional approval amid polls showing divided support.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at the possibility of a ground operation in Iran to help topple the regime, stating that a revolution cannot be done from the air alone. The remarks come after Israel's attack on the South Pars gas field and amid a war entering its third week. Netanyahu also claimed Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles.

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As Operation Epic Fury continues into its fifth day, U.S. and Israeli strikes have hit over 1,000 Iranian targets, sinking warships and crippling communications, but Iran retaliated, killing four U.S. service members. Political backlash grows with polls showing majority opposition and pushes for congressional oversight amid rising oil prices.

Israel and the United States launched joint attacks on sites across Iran on Saturday morning, following weeks of US military build-up in the region. Iranian media reported that the Revolutionary Guard responded with strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The assault produced plumes of smoke in downtown Tehran near key government buildings.

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One week after Operation Epic Fury began, the Trump administration confirmed the deaths of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of top officials in U.S. strikes. Congress rejected bipartisan war powers resolutions limiting further action, deepening Republican divisions amid Iranian retaliation threats and post-regime uncertainties.

 

 

 

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