The United States has launched military operations against Iran, prompting comparisons to the 2003 Iraq invasion. NPR's Leila Fadel examines historical parallels and expert assessments on whether regime change is feasible in Iran. Celebrations followed the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but concerns linger over potential instability.
The recent US-led strikes on Iran, involving the United States and Israel, have ignited discussions about regime change reminiscent of the 2003 Iraq war. President Donald Trump announced the operations, stating, "A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime." This echoes President George W. Bush's address on Iraq, where forces aimed to disarm the country and defend against perceived dangers.
The Iraq conflict, initially projected by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to last "six days, six weeks," extended for years, fueled by false claims of weapons of mass destruction. It incurred over $1 trillion in costs, ignited a sectarian civil war, and resulted in thousands of American soldier deaths and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi fatalities. Current Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth distinguishes the Iran approach: "This is not Iraq. This is not endless." He emphasized a strategy avoiding "stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars," focusing on lethal operations with B-2 bombers, fighters, drones, missiles, and classified effects.
Peter Mansoor, a US Army leader during the 2007-2008 Iraq surge, highlights similarities, including Iran's past influence over Iraq's Shia leadership and US encounters with Sunni insurgents. He notes a lack of long-term planning for Iran's reconstruction, warning that arming groups like Kurds could exacerbate ethnic tensions. Mansoor suggests supporting Persian factions with air power might foment insurgency but risks civil war, as 80% public support for change in Iraq did not prevent prolonged violence from regime backers.
Jen Gavito, a former State Department official until 2024, cites war games indicating external regime change would likely strengthen the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), leading to a harder-line government. Last week, Iranians in Tehran celebrated Khamenei's death, akin to Iraqi reactions to Saddam Hussein's capture. Iranian American historian Arash Azizi expressed cautious optimism for a post-Khamenei era but voiced numbness and worry over bombardment and foreign influence: "It was hard for me to feel anything... I was worried about my family dying." He hopes for Iranian self-determination amid the turmoil.
