Analysts from UBS and New Street Research predict Tesla's fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries will miss consensus estimates due to fading EV incentives. The Swiss bank anticipates around 415,000 units, a decline of over 16% year-on-year. Deliveries are set to be announced on January 2, 2026.
Tesla's upcoming fourth-quarter delivery figures are drawing scrutiny from analysts, who foresee a downturn primarily driven by the expiration of government incentives. New Street Research estimates deliveries between 415,000 and 435,000 vehicles, below the market consensus of about 440,000 units. UBS analyst Joseph Spak aligns with this view, projecting roughly 415,000 deliveries, which is 5% lower than Visible Alpha expectations. This shortfall stems from a strong third quarter fueled by "pull-forwards," where buyers rushed to secure subsidies before they ended in September.
The weakness is most pronounced in the United States, where the $7,500 EV tax credit expired. New Street Research's Pierre Ferragu predicts a quarter-on-quarter drop of approximately 75,000 vehicles in the U.S. UBS is more bearish, forecasting a sequential decline exceeding 35% and a 25% year-on-year fall. In contrast, Europe shows sequential improvement, with deliveries in the top eight markets up about 31% in the first two months of the quarter. Spak noted, "We expect Europe is improved q/q. Through the first 2 months of the quarter, deliveries in Europe’s top 8 markets are up ~31% q/q. We expect the region to end around ~70k deliveries for the quarter. This would likely be down ~15% y/y."
China offers some stability, with expected slight sequential growth from year-end demand, though deliveries may dip 10% year-on-year. Globally, markets like South Korea and Turkey face declines after prior incentive boosts. The anticipated volume reduction could pressure margins, with Ferragu estimating a 2.3 percentage point quarter-on-quarter decrease, landing 2.2 points below consensus.
Despite these headwinds, some analysts, including Spak, suggest investors may prioritize long-term developments like self-driving technology, robo-taxis, and the Optimus robot over short-term delivery numbers.
