Continuing coverage of Tesla's EV challenges (see Jan 5 Q4 miss analysis), UBS analyst Joseph Spak on January 5 maintained a 'sell' rating with $247 target, arguing AI ventures like robotaxi and Optimus are overvalued amid declining EV sales and slashed earnings forecasts—much upside already priced in despite tech progress.
As detailed in prior EV Headwinds reporting on Q4's delivery shortfall (418,000 vs. 423,000 expected) and market share losses, Spak's note highlights how Tesla's rising stock reflects inflated AI expectations over weakening fundamentals. Consensus 2025/2026 EPS estimates have fallen 50% and 46% YoY.
While acknowledging tech advances, Spak notes the market devalues Tesla's core EV business while assigning premium to AI projects: "Given a declining valuation for TSLA’s EV business, the market is already assigning a higher and higher value to the AI ventures. While the TAM for these ventures may be large, they could also be further out (especially Optimus)."
Potential 2026 catalysts include removing Austin robotaxi safety drivers, service expansions, public access, FSD updates, Cybercab production, and Optimus V3—but Spak stresses these are "already (more than) baked into the stock price."
This bearish valuation view contrasts bullish consensus ($406 average PT) amid ongoing EV headwinds.