The Indonesian rupiah weakened by 19 points to Rp16,848 per US dollar at the opening of trading in Jakarta on Wednesday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address. Meanwhile, the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) strengthened. Market sentiment is influenced by concerns over US trade policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
On Wednesday, February 25, 2026, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened by 19 points or 0.11 percent to Rp16,848 from the previous Rp16,829. This movement occurred as market participants monitored global economic and geopolitical developments, particularly ahead of US President Donald Trump's State of the Union (SOTU) address scheduled for Tuesday evening US time, or February 24, 2026.
Josua Pardede, Head of Economics at Permata Bank, stated that sentiment toward the rupiah is influenced by investors' cautious approach. “Market participants are closely monitoring potential developments in US trade policies and further actions in the Middle East,” he told ANTARA in Jakarta. This speech marks Trump's first SOTU since returning to office for his second term. In March 2025, Trump delivered an important address to a joint session of Congress, but it was not officially designated as a State of the Union speech as it occurred shortly after his inauguration.
The address comes amid a decline in Trump's approval rating. Recent polls show only 32 percent of Americans believe Trump has the right priorities, while 68 percent say he has not sufficiently addressed the country's most important issues. “The increased caution supports demand for the US dollar, which strengthened against most major currencies, including the rupiah,” Josua added.
Meanwhile, the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) strengthened amid these sentiments. Based on these factors, the rupiah is projected to trade in the range of Rp16,775–Rp16,900 per US dollar. In addition to Trump's speech, investors are also watching developments in China's economy and US tariff policies.
