Ongoing protests in Iran represent the most significant challenge to the Islamic theocracy since its founding in 1979, according to experts. Demonstrators are calling for wholesale political change, bypassing reform and elections. The movement's broad reach and demands for the return of the pre-1979 monarchy highlight deepening discontent with clerical rule.
The current wave of anti-government protests in Iran has escalated into the most consequential threat to the regime's legitimacy in over four decades, as described by Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Speaking on Morning Wire, Taleblu emphasized that Iranians have moved beyond reformist efforts and electoral participation, turning to street demonstrations to demand fundamental transformation. "Iranians pushed past reform, Iranians pushed past the ballot box and found the street to be the best way to contest the state and make their case, not just to their fellow compatriots and citizens, but to the world that they seek wholesale political change – not evolution, not musical chairs at the top, not another fig leaf, not putting lipstick on a pig," Taleblu said.
Large-scale protests challenging the regime have occurred since 2017, but this iteration stands out for its potential to achieve regime change. Taleblu called it "the most important challenge to the regime’s legitimacy from the street in the past 46 years," noting its hallmarks of anti-regime slogans, goals of wholesale change, and notably broad demographic and geographic participation.
A distinctive element of these protests is the widespread calls for restoring the shah and the Pahlavi dynasty, which ruled Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution established the current theocratic system. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, continuing the dynasty in exile, has positioned himself as a potential bridge to a new democratic or republican Iran. Many protesters view him as a stabilizing figure during a possible transition, per Taleblu, though the extent of support for monarchy restoration remains unclear.
Taleblu stressed that the manner of any regime collapse will shape Iran's future, depending on factors like Western involvement and links between internal and external opposition. "The most important question is not if-and-when the regime falls, but how the regime falls, what role the West plays, what role Washington plays, what kind of linkage there is between external opposition and internal opposition? These are all important factors because how the regime falls will tell you if there’s evolution, if there’s devolution, or if there is revolution. And this is something that we cannot be indifferent to," he said.
Should the ayatollahs' rule end, a democratic outcome would benefit both the United States and Iranians, Taleblu argued. However, without substantial external support for protesters, power might shift to the military, which currently aligns with the clerics.
