Tesla's unusual pre-earnings consensus of 422,850 Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries—a 15% drop from 2024 and below Wall Street's 440,000-445,000 forecast—highlights persistent EV headwinds. Added challenges include a post-tax-credit US sales trough, Chinese rivals, and a nearly 30% plunge in European demand linked to CEO Elon Musk's political activities.
Tesla broke from tradition this week by posting a public analyst consensus for Q4 2025 deliveries on its Investor Relations site, compiled from firms like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays. Future Fund partner Gary Black called the move 'highly unusual,' estimating actual figures near 420,000 in line with Tesla's internal expectations. Full-year projections sit at 1.6-1.64 million units, over 8% below 2024 and potentially the second straight annual decline.
In the US, November sales hit lows not seen since 2022 after the $7,500 federal tax credit expired in September, despite new Model 3 and Y variants under $40,000. Internationally, Chinese EV startups are flooding markets with cheap, tech-laden models, while European sales have cratered nearly 30%. A Yale study by economists Kenneth Gillingham and Barry Nalebuff attributes some weakness to 'Musk derangement syndrome' stemming from the CEO's Trump administration ties.
Tesla is countering with US incentives and Full Self-Driving software pushes in China and Europe. Ironically, shares hit record highs this month on robotaxi optimism, ending up 14% for 2025 despite trailing the S&P 500's 17% gain. They dipped 1.3% after the consensus but recovered. Official Q4 deliveries are due as early as Friday, ahead of earnings.