Fedecafé and government to invest $50 billion in coffee fertilizers ahead of El Niño

The National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafé) and the national government will allocate $50 billion to the Coffee Price Stabilization Fund to support fertilization ahead of the El Niño phenomenon in the second half of 2026. Fedecafé will contribute $40 billion and the government $10 billion. The measure will benefit producers in 421 municipalities.

The National Federation of Coffee Growers announced it will invest $50 billion with the government in the Coffee Price Stabilization Fund, created in 2019, to ensure coffee production ahead of the El Niño phenomenon expected in the second half of the year.

Fedecafé will allocate $40 billion to support fertilization and renewal in 421 coffee municipalities, while the Ministry of Agriculture will contribute $10 billion for 208 of the 629 producing municipalities. It includes a 5% equity bonus for women and young coffee growers, with them covering 70% and the program 30%.

The National Coffee Committee decision impacts 568,000 families, 97% with less than five hectares and 91% with less than three. The internal load price dropped 25%, from $3.2 million in March 2025 to $2.2 million in March 2026, with production costs at $1.55 million per load. National production will decline from 13.7 million sacks in 2025 to 12.4 million in 2026.

El Niño could affect flowering, grain quality, and yield, amid global fertilizer price increases of up to 22.5%. The measure could benefit around 108,000 producers, according to Fedecafé.

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Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

Colombia's coffee production dropped 34% in January 2026 compared to the same month the previous year, reaching just 893,000 60-kg sacks. The National Federation of Coffee Growers attributes this decline to climate shocks, exchange rate appreciation, and international price volatility. Nonetheless, exports over the last 12 months saw a slight increase.

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has not directly driven up coffee prices, which remain stable amid predictions of record harvests. However, spikes in oil prices are increasing freight, energy, and fertiliser costs, posing indirect risks to the coffee industry. Escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global supply chains.

President Gustavo Petro warned during a Council of Ministers meeting of potential food shortages in areas hit by floods from increased rainfall. He stated the situation will be prolonged and could spread to other regions, affecting agricultural production beyond June. He called for emergency decree measures to boost production and regulate costs such as land rentals.

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Huila department recorded 9.7% multidimensional poverty in 2025, below the national average of 9.9%. This marks the first time it reaches a single digit, down from 11.9% in 2023 and 10.9% in 2024. Economic dynamism, led by coffee and aquaculture, drives this improvement.

Ethiopia's birr has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, driving up fertilizer and fuel prices. This threatens gains from a targeted 7 million metric tons wheat harvest in the 2026/27 season. The currency weakened from 75 birr to 155 birr per dollar since July 2024, a 107 percent loss in value by February 2026.

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The closure of the Strait of Ormuz amid the US-Iran conflict has driven a 7.5% rise in global fertilizer prices over the past week, with urea surging 24%. Colombia, reliant on imports for most of these inputs, faces potential effects on its agricultural sector. Experts warn this could increase production costs for crops.

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