The National Interagency Coordination Center released projections on Wednesday showing every state in the Western US at above-normal risk of wildfires this summer. Factors including drought, low snowpack, rapid snowmelt, and a recent heat wave have expanded the threat area dramatically since March. Experts warn of challenging conditions ahead.
The National Interagency Coordination Center published its latest monthly fire risk outlook, marking a stark shift from the March forecast. Previously, elevated risks appeared in a small area of the Southwest; now, maps show red zones spanning the Southwest, Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and northern California due to ongoing snow drought and an unprecedented winter heat wave. Every Western state is expected to face above-normal threats during the summer months ahead. Snowmelt in the Four Corners region occurred four to six weeks earlier than the previous earliest records, while Albuquerque hit 90 degrees on March 21—over six weeks ahead of its prior mark—and Las Vegas averaged 73.1 degrees for the month, potentially shattering an April record. Acres burned nationwide through March stand at 231 percent of the 10-year average. Matthew Hurteau, director of the Center for Fire Resilient Ecosystems and Society at the University of New Mexico, said, “We’re probably not going to be in great shape this year.” He noted the unusual northward expansion of risks this early, as June typically features lingering snow. Alastair Hayden, a Cornell University professor and former California emergency services division chief, cautioned that not all highlighted areas will burn, citing local winds and precipitation as key variables, but added, “fires usually tend to be in one of these locations.” Southern California appears lower risk for now, as its season peaks later, though Florida shows some elevated threats from drought. Hurteau urged vigilance for July, calling the Fourth of July the highest ignition day, and raised concerns over stretched firefighting resources if fires ignite widely. A wet spring could mitigate risks, as recent rains in Albuquerque suggest, but he emphasized, “hope is not a great strategy.”
