As NASA approaches a decision on its Lunar Terrain Vehicle contract, officials are pushing for a 'warm backup' to fund a second company alongside the primary winner. This insurance policy aims to mitigate risks seen in past programs where single providers faltered. The selection involves three competitors: Intuitive Machines, Lunar Outpost, and Astrolab.
NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) program is set to down-select from three companies to one primary provider for rover services starting in 2029, with a potential value of up to $4.6 billion over a decade. In April 2024, the agency awarded tens of millions of dollars to Intuitive Machines, Lunar Outpost, and Astrolab for preliminary design work, including prototypes. The companies submitted final bids in August, and NASA plans to announce the winner before the end of December 2025.
Budget constraints limit NASA to funding only one company, raising concerns about vulnerability. Past experiences, such as spacesuit provider Collins dropping out—leaving Axiom Space as the sole option—and the near-exclusive award to Boeing in the 2014 Commercial Crew Program, highlight the risks of single points of failure. 'We have seen, over and over again with our commercial programs, that two is better than one,' an official told Ars Technica.
To address this, NASA officials advocate for a 'warm backup' approach: awarding the main contract to one firm while providing a few hundred million dollars to a second for progression through the critical design review phase. 'This would be a cheap insurance policy,' a source said. This strategy could preserve innovations from Lunar Outpost and Astrolab, newer entrants without Intuitive Machines' broader business lines, and support diverse rover designs offering varied mobility and research capabilities. 'All of the proposed rovers are different, and it’s a great result of a competition,' another source noted.
Currently, no funds exist for the backup, complicating the decision amid leadership transitions. Interim administrator Sean Duffy is departing soon, with nominee Jared Isaacman facing a confirmation hearing this week and possible Senate approval by mid-December.