Cocaine production and trafficking have reached record highs in recent years, propelled largely by renewed growth in coca cultivation and cocaine output in Colombia, according to U.N. estimates. Researchers and U.S. health data indicate the surge has coincided with larger cocaine shipments, expanding use in some markets, and a marked rise in cocaine-involved overdose deaths in the United States.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has reported record levels of cocaine production in recent years, alongside rising seizures and widening health and security harms along trafficking routes. In its World Drug Report 2024, UNODC estimated global cocaine production reached 2,757 metric tons in 2022, the highest level then recorded, and said the supply surge has coincided with increased violence in some transit countries and growing health harms in destination markets, including Western and Central Europe.
Economists studying Colombia’s coca economy trace much of the recent surge to a reversal that began around 2015 after years of steep declines. A February 2026 working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) notes that Colombian coca cultivation fell sharply between 2000 and 2015 amid intense eradication and interdiction efforts, then rebounded as “peace talks and legal rulings in Colombia opened enforcement gaps.” The paper and related reporting describe this period as a turning point that allowed cultivation to expand again.
By 2022, Colombia’s coca cultivation exceeded 230,000 hectares, and UN-linked monitoring reports described the country’s coca acreage and potential cocaine output as reaching record levels. UNODC has separately reported year-to-year increases in Colombia’s coca area and potential production in the early 2020s, including record highs reported for 2022.
Researchers say the renewed supply appears to have reached the United States in ways that show up in enforcement data. Reporting on the NBER study cites Drug Enforcement Administration figures indicating that after 2015, the average size of cocaine seizures increased markedly, while seizures of other drugs did not follow the same pattern.
Economist Benjamin Hansen of the University of Oregon, a co-author of the NBER paper, argues that a surge in supply can also change demand dynamics because cocaine is an “experience good.” “Because cocaine is an experience good, if you have a big supply shock, that leads to more people potentially using it and therefore experiencing it, and liking it,” Hansen said. “And then they want it again.”
The U.S. overdose toll associated with cocaine has risen sharply since the late 2010s, according to the researchers, after a prolonged period of comparatively stable mortality. The NBER working paper estimates that absent Colombia’s post-2015 boom, the United States would have seen roughly 1,000 to 1,500 fewer overdose deaths per year in the late 2010s.
For scale, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics estimates there were 29,918 overdose deaths involving cocaine in 2023. The CDC cautions that overdose deaths often involve more than one drug and that totals by drug category cannot be summed to match the overall number of overdose deaths.
The researchers argue that the relationship they observe is not limited to cases involving combinations of drugs, though the broader U.S. overdose crisis remains dominated by synthetic opioids such as fentanyl.
Hansen said the findings underscore that supply-side constraints at the source can shape outcomes abroad, describing traffickers as responsive to economic incentives: “They’re going to respond to the bottom line.”
