SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation executed around 300,000 manoeuvres to dodge potential collisions in 2025, marking a 50 per cent rise from the previous year. The company's report to US regulators highlights the growing congestion in Earth's orbit. Experts warn that such high numbers signal unsustainable traffic in space.
SpaceX filed its latest safety update with the US Federal Communications Commission on 31 December, detailing the operations of its Starlink mega-constellation. Comprising about 9,400 satellites—representing 65 per cent of all active ones in orbit—Starlink provides internet services from low Earth orbit. The report disclosed that from June to November 2025, the satellites conducted approximately 149,000 collision-avoidance manoeuvres, adding to 144,000 from December 2024 to May 2025, for a yearly total of roughly 300,000. This is up from 200,000 manoeuvres in 2024.
These actions occur when satellites approach with a collision risk of 3 in 10 million, a more cautious threshold than the industry's standard of 1 in 10,000. Hugh Lewis, an expert at the University of Birmingham in the UK, described the figure as "a huge amount of manoeuvres" and "an incredibly high number." He projected that SpaceX could reach 1 million manoeuvres annually by 2027, especially with emerging mega-constellations from the US and China. "From a physics point of view, it’s not good," Lewis added. "We are moving ourselves towards a pretty bad scenario in orbit. It is not sustainable."
The report also noted over 1,000 close approaches with the Chinese satellite Honghu-2, operating in similar orbits at altitudes of 340 to 570 kilometres. Samantha Lawler from the University of Regina in Canada observed, "It highlights how SpaceX really owns that orbit." Despite the Outer Space Treaty mandating equal access to space, Starlink's dominance raises concerns.
Additionally, a Starlink satellite exploded in December due to a suspected hardware failure, scattering dozens of debris pieces. SpaceX stated it had identified and removed the faulty components from future designs. An incident involved a Japanese firm, Astroscale, whose unannounced manoeuvre nearly risked a collision, though Astroscale claimed it followed guidelines and shared plans publicly.
Lawler praised the system's reliability: "They’re doing all these manoeuvres and they’re doing them perfectly." Yet she cautioned, "But if they make a mistake, we’re in really big trouble." The autonomous dodging system handles the volume, but the escalating manoeuvres underscore orbit's fragility, where a single collision could generate debris threatening usability.
