A new study indicates that rising sea levels may diminish the ability of mangrove forests to store carbon over the coming century. Researchers developed a model showing that while some areas might see temporary gains, overall storage capacity is likely to decline. The findings highlight risks of mangroves shifting from carbon sinks to sources.
Researchers at the University of Exeter, in collaboration with partners in Colombia and the United States, created a computer model linking water flow, sediment transport, mangrove growth, and carbon storage. The model accounts for changes across entire forests rather than isolated field sites. Dr. Arya Iwantoro, now at the University of Plymouth, noted that field studies often show increased carbon storage with sea-level rise but said this does not capture the full forest response. The analysis of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios found higher sea-level rise leads to greater losses. Luisa Fernanda Gómez Vargas explained that mangroves require specific flooding durations and will die back if exceeded, allowing erosion of carbon-rich soils. Dr. Barend van Maanen emphasized the need to consider coastal landscapes as a whole for protection efforts. The study was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and published in the journal Earth's Future.