Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner has issued an optimistic note on Tesla's robotaxi business, projecting annual revenue of $250 billion by 2035 under certain assumptions. While highlighting long-term potential, Rosner cautions about near-term costs and high valuation risks for investors. The report also touches on upside from Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot and Full Self-Driving licensing.
In a recent research note, Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner described 2026 as a "catalyst-rich year" for Tesla, driven by expansions in its robotaxi operations and advancements in autonomous technologies. Rosner's model envisions Tesla's robotaxi revenue reaching $250 billion annually by 2035, based on 30% penetration of autonomous vehicles, the company capturing 50% market share, and a pricing model of $1 per mile. This scenario would underpin a $2.75 trillion equity value for Tesla, equivalent to about $900 billion in present value or roughly $250 per share.
Rosner noted additional growth potential from Optimus humanoid robots and Full Self-Driving (FSD) licensing, stating, "Optimus and FSD licensing would support even additional upside." For Optimus, mass production is expected to begin at the end of 2026, though significant revenue contributions are not anticipated until late 2027 at the earliest, with production ramp-up posing challenges.
However, the analyst tempered enthusiasm with near-term concerns. Tesla plans to launch robotaxis in seven new markets during the first half of 2026, expanding its fleet from around 250 vehicles to 7,200. This growth is projected to result in $500 million in losses for the robotaxi business next year, with break-even not expected until 2027 and revenue potential of about $30 billion by 2030. Rosner wrote, "... While we have concerns on near-term earnings, we remain tactically constructive, with a steady stream of catalysts ahead."
Tesla's current $1.25 trillion market capitalization reflects a premium valuation, trading at 192 times forward earnings amid struggles in its core electric vehicle business and the end of U.S. incentives like the $7,500 federal tax credit. Investors should consider risks such as competition, fleet scaling, achieving fully unsupervised self-driving, and regulatory hurdles, which could impede progress in this nascent sector.
