Housing prices in Spain rise 13.1% in 2025, the highest increase since 2006

Spain's housing market saw a sharp surge in 2025, with a 13.1% year-on-year price increase in the fourth quarter, per Tinsa data. This growth, the highest in nearly two decades, pushes the average price per square meter to 2,091 euros, approaching 2007 peak levels. Strong labor markets and stabilizing mortgage costs drive the trend amid insufficient supply.

Housing prices in Spain accelerated in late 2025, posting a 13.1% year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter, the highest since 2006, according to Tinsa's report released on December 29. Adjusted for inflation, the real gain was 10%, exceeding the previous moderate pace of around 4%.

The average price per square meter now stands at 2,091 euros, 3.3% below the 2007 peak, seen as the housing bubble's high point. From the 2015 low, prices have risen 63.8% nominally. The increase is widespread across all autonomous communities, though at varying rates: Madrid leads at nearly 19.6%, followed by the Valencian Community and Cantabria, both around 16%. The highest prices are in Madrid (3,799 euros/m²), the Balearic Islands (3,644), and Catalonia (2,549), while the lowest include Extremadura (976 euros/m²).

Provincially, 32 of 52 provinces saw accelerating rises, with 21 exceeding 10%. In provincial capitals, 20 recorded increases over 10%, with Madrid at 20.9% and Barcelona at 8.3%. Ten cities, such as Palma, Madrid, and Malaga, now surpass 2007 nominal prices.

Jose García Montalvo, professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University, notes that 2025's real growth rate is among the highest in the last 20 years, though it does not yet match 2006 levels. Affordability is strained: nationally, buying requires 34.5% of median income, but in Madrid it reaches 56% and in Barcelona 53%.

For 2026, Cristina Arias, head of Studies at Tinsa, forecasts 5% to 10% growth due to supply shortages. For new homes, Sociedad de Tasación reports an 8.9% rise to 3,298 euros/m², a historic high.

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Dramatic split-image depicting Middle East oil conflict impacting Spain's economy with declining IMF growth forecasts and housing policy recommendations.
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IMF cuts Spain's growth forecast to 2.1% due to Iran war

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The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for Spain's economy by two tenths, to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, due to the Middle East conflict. The organization attributes the adjustment mainly to rising oil and gas prices. It recommends eliminating rent controls and taking stronger action on housing.

INE data reveal an average 22.9 percent rise in Spanish rents from 2015 to 2024, with increases above 30 percent in three provincial capitals.

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Following initial signs of slowdown in late 2025, Buenos Aires' real estate market has stalled in early 2026 with four consecutive months of declining mortgages, developer Miguel Chej Muse said. Prices present buying opportunities amid tight credit, while rentals remain active.

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The International Monetary Fund released its Article IV report on Spain on Friday. It warns of slower growth and inflation up to 4.8% in 2027 if the Iran war drags on.

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The Banco de la República released its Monthly Survey of Economists' Expectations, forecasting year-end inflation at 6.32% and interest rates at 12.25%. These projections mark an upward revision from March. Experts anticipate a gradual moderation in subsequent years.

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