Scientists warn US actions accelerate Pacific coral reef collapse

A team of international researchers has accused the US government of hastening the collapse of coral reefs around Guam through military expansions and proposed rollbacks to the Endangered Species Act. In a letter published in Science this month, they highlight how national security priorities are overriding conservation efforts. Without changes, these reefs face functional extinction similar to those in Florida.

Ritidian Point at the northern tip of Guam features an ancient limestone forest and diverse marine life, including migrating humpback whales. However, the area is also near a live-fire testing range, illustrating the tension between natural beauty and military presence on the island, which hosts nearly 23,000 military personnel despite its small size.

Researchers, led by Colin Anthony, a doctoral fellow at the University of Tokyo, warn in a February 2026 Science letter that Pentagon projects like dredging and expanded infrastructure are damaging the Pacific's most diverse US coral reefs. "The United States government seems to be softening conservation policies in ways that allow companies and the military to avoid regulation," Anthony said.

In July 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) rejected a Navy request to expand exempt military zones at Ritidian Point, prioritizing conservation, and designated critical habitat for five threatened coral species across 92 square miles, including Guam and American Samoa. These gains were reversed after President Trump's Executive Order 14154 in January 2025, which aimed to remove burdens on energy and security. By November 2025, NOAA proposed changes to bypass habitat regulations, removing requirements to consider economic impacts and redefining environmental baselines to ignore past degradation.

A key issue is the Endangered Species Act's (ESA) handling of coral taxonomy. Corals' phenotypic plasticity makes classification challenging, leaving many, including Acropora species, unprotected despite their endangered status on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. "Many of the corals in the Indo-Pacific, such as those in Guam, have not been taxonomically verified via DNA barcoding," said Laurie Raymundo, a biology professor at the University of Guam.

Guam lost 34 to 37 percent of its live coral between 2013 and 2017 due to heatwaves, low tides, and diseases. Staghorn Acropora corals, vital for reef structure, are particularly vulnerable. The 2023 Florida heatwave caused 98 percent mortality in elkhorn and staghorn corals, leading to functional extinction.

Indigenous Chamorro communities on Guam express frustration over past military pollution like PCBs and PFAS. Raymundo noted anger among affected residents, emphasizing that small islands bear climate impacts despite minimal contributions. Researchers urge NOAA to reverse ESA proposals and protect the Acropora genus broadly, as done for certain whale populations. "Florida has become a glimpse into the future for the Pacific Ocean," Anthony said. "Unlike Florida, for the Pacific, it’s not too late."

In January 2026, NOAA began surveying American Samoa waters for minerals, criticized as shifting from science to prospecting.

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