The Trump administration intends to shut down the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a pivotal institution for atmospheric science. This move targets what officials call 'climate alarmism,' potentially disrupting global weather forecasting and climate modeling efforts. Scientists warn that the closure could hinder preparations for worsening extreme weather.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), established in 1960, has been instrumental in advancing atmospheric science on a scale beyond individual universities. With 830 employees, it conducts research spanning from the ocean floor to the Sun’s core, including monitoring flooding, wildfires, and space weather.
In a statement to USA Today, White House official Russ Vought described NCAR as a source of “climate alarmism” that will be broken up. The administration plans to eliminate “green new scam research” while relocating vital functions like weather modeling and supercomputing to other facilities.
NCAR's contributions are extensive. It invented the GPS dropsonde, a sensor device dropped into hurricanes to enhance understanding of tropical storms, and developed wind-shear warning systems for airports that have averted numerous crashes. Its software and data enabled the creation of Weather Underground, as noted by founder Jeff Masters, a meteorologist.
The center develops the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, used for daily forecasts and regional climate studies, and collaborates with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on severe storm predictions. NCAR also administers the Community Earth System Model (CESM), described by Richard Rood at the University of Michigan as “probably the most-used model in the world.” This model supports research on carbon emissions, ocean currents, heatwaves, and ice melt, with biannual user meetings guiding improvements.
Its models underpin reports from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), informing global decisions on emissions reductions and adaptation to extreme weather. Michael Meredith at the British Antarctic Survey stated, “Shutting it down would lead to greater uncertainty about what our climate future might be and leave us less able to prepare effectively.” He added, “It’s hard to see this as anything other than shooting the messenger.”
NCAR operates specialized aircraft, including a C-130 cargo plane, a modified Gulfstream jet, and a King Air for cloud physics. Between 2009 and 2011, the Gulfstream conducted the first comprehensive atmospheric survey of CO2 and other gases from the North Pole to the South Pole. In 2017, it measured the sun’s corona during a solar eclipse. These flights monitor air pollution and calibrate satellite instruments, with aerosol research crucial for geoengineering assessments.
Jeff Masters compared the potential disruption to halting weapons R&D on the eve of World War II, warning, “If we don’t know what’s coming at us, it’s going to be more expensive and it’s going to kill more people.” Colin Carlson at Yale University, using NCAR models to predict disease spread like cholera and dengue, emphasized on social media, “We need NCAR to do our jobs.” Rood cautioned that eliminating such research would leave decisions on geoengineering and climate tipping points “flying blind.”
The closure, based at NCAR's facility in the Colorado Rockies, threatens ongoing advancements in forecasts amid rising extreme weather frequency.
