Global crude oil prices have surpassed 115 USD per barrel, triggered by escalation in the Iran-AS-Israel war and Houthi threats. Economists warn of fiscal risks for Indonesia, including rupiah weakening to Rp17,002 per USD and potential APBN deficit. Pertamina denies rumors of non-subsidy fuel price hikes starting April 1, 2026.
Global crude oil prices surged above 115 USD per barrel on Monday (March 30, 2026), far exceeding Indonesia's APBN assumption of 70 USD. The spike is driven by the prolonged Iran-AS-Israel war, with Houthi involvement threatening the Bab al-Mandab Strait and missile attacks on Israel. US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, stating, “If the deal fails... we will end our ‘presence’ in Iran by destroying all power plants, oil fields, and Kharg Island.”
Paramadina University economist Wijayanto Samirin warned of impacts on Indonesia. “APBN deficit will explode, inflation will rise, public purchasing power will weaken,” he said. The rupiah breached Rp17,002 per USD at Monday's close, risking a fiscal crisis.
Phintraco Sekuritas analysts project non-subsidy fuel price hikes like Pertamax to Rp17,850 per liter in April 2026, as Brent crude hit US$114.90. However, Pertamina VP Corporate Communication Muhammad Baron stated, “As of now, there is no official announcement regarding prices from April 1, 2026.” ESDM Minister Bahlil Lahadalia and Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa aim to keep subsidized fuel prices stable.
The government is preparing mitigations such as budget efficiency and increasing biodiesel to B50 to cushion economic pressures.
